A study on the release of national gold securities reported that FOMC was expected to be interest-free in November, but that it would be difficult for the conference to release a signal that no interest-rate hike would take place and to maintain the view that the 25bps increase in December would be difficult to reduce in the first half of next year. While US GDP of 23Q3 published last week was as high as + 4.9 per cent, market interest increases were expected to not rise or fall after the release of the data, owing to previous market expectations, a general GDP data structure, a weak annual rate of the core PCE ring, a weak analyst’s outlook for post-market economic growth. At November’s November FOMC, Beijing time, there will be no interest rate on the Fed, but strong GDP data will reinforce the description of the economy in the FOMC statement, and Powell is not expected to confirm that the Fed has stopped raising interest.
The main points of view of national gold securities are as follows:
FOMC was expected to remain interest-free in November, but it was difficult for the meeting to release a signal that no interest rate would increase and to maintain the idea that the 25bps increase in December would be difficult to reduce in the first half of next year.
While US GDP of 23Q3 published last week was as high as + 4.9 per cent, market interest increases were expected to not rise or fall after the release of the data, owing to previous market expectations, a general GDP data structure, a weak annual rate of the core PCE ring, a weak analyst’s outlook for post-market economic growth. At November’s November FOMC, Beijing time, there will be no interest rate on the Fed, but strong GDP data will reinforce the description of the economy in the FOMC statement, and Powell is not expected to confirm that the Fed has stopped raising interest. The final interest rate increase for FOMC in December continues to depend on two sets of non-farm and inflation data prior to the meeting, which the Bank expects will support the Fed in implementing the final interest rate increase of the September point map guidelines at the December FOMC meeting.
Federal fund interest rate: traders continue to bet interest-free in November, the last interest rate increase is expected to be postponed to January next year and the interest rate reduction is expected to be maintained in June 2024.
A near-end interest rate increase is expected: CME futures model shows that traders expect to maintain the policy interest rate at 99.9 per cent in November, 19.8 per cent in December and 28 per cent in January 2024. The +2.1 per cent +1.8 per cent +1.8 per cent increase in United States GDP from the annual rate of 23Q2 to the annual rate of +4.9 per cent is significantly higher than the +1.8 per cent increase set by the Federal Reserve, but the increase in interest rates following the release of the data is expected to not be reversed or reversed, mainly because: 1 is expected to be more than full, the results of the Nowcast results of the Federal Reserve's GDP Now model since mid-August have been constricted by 5 per cent; 2 in general terms, consumption (to GDP pull +2.69 per cent) has been repaired more from the banking crisis, the average of Q2-Q3 per cent differs little from Q1 per cent for each consumption sub-section, investment (+1.47 per cent) has been driven mainly by high-variant stocks (+1.2 per cent), while manufacturing construction expenditure has been significantly cooled and equipment investments have been down overall; 3 core PCE rings are weaker than annual +2.4 per cent, expected +2.5 per cent, previous +3.7 per cent, and are expected to decline significantly. The outlook is weak, high growth in Q3 or the last “high-light moments” of the United States economy, with analysts predicting GDP growth in the next three quarters +0.8 per cent, +0.2 per cent and +0.5 per cent, respectively, with a weak and tight monetary performance marginalizing growth expectations.
Looking forward, while the November rate of FOMC will not increase, the statement that the economic boom will be expressed will not signal a halt to the hike. The two remaining sets of non-farm and inflation data remaining in December for FOMC are expected to continue to implement the guidelines of the September-point map, i.e., a final interest rate hike at Q4, unless the data structure changes (a significant rise in unemployment and a significant decline in supercore inflation). According to a questionnaire survey of analysts conducted by Bloomberg in October, the remaining Q4 interest rate increase was expected to be 15 and 45, respectively, and neither the analyst nor the trader fully valued the final Q4 rate increase. Of course, it is more important when the interest rate is reduced than if there is another increase. 2 Long-range interest rate reduction expectations: The CME Federal Fund futures model shows that, at the current level of [5.25, 5.5] per cent interest rates, traders expected to lower interest rates for the first time at June 2024, and the latest Bloomberg analyst survey in October, according to which the first rate reduction was maintained at 2024 Q2, the expectations of analysts and traders remained overly optimistic.
Federal Reserve balance sheet: a continuation of the abbreviation, net liquidity recovery.
Last week, total Fed assets decreased by $25.31 billion to $7.96 trillion. 1 Asset end: Portfolio assets decreased by $18,002 million to $7.38 trillion (US Treasury debt by $1,257 million and MBS by $16,745 million). Loan instruments decreased by $4.587 billion to $1.65 billion. By category, major loans, BTFP and other credit guarantee instruments were added to $208, 250 and $4.9 billion, respectively. In terms of duration, $1-15, 16-90 and 91-day-1 loan instruments were added - $4.9 billion and $200 million respectively. 2 Liabilities end & net assets: Last week, Federal Reserve liabilities decreased by $39.05 billion to $4.69 trillion (reverse repurchases decreased by $45.813 billion to $1.40 trillion and TGA increased by $6.614 billion to $847.7 million) and bank reserve balances increased by $13.741 billion to $326.4 trillion. The Federal Reserve invested a net liquidity scale of $14 billion more than last week.
Risk tips: financial system risks are re-emerging; inflation is falling at a slower rate than expected; and the Fed is tightening.