With a thematic investment fund betting on the long-term explosive potential of the GLP-1 track sparking discussions, the US stock market is also starting to examine which pharmaceutical companies besides Novo Nordisk and Lilly have a chance to get a share.
Dave Maza, CEO of ETF issuer Roundhill Investments, stated on Monday that actively overproducing companies that actually produce such drugs in the market and gradually identifying companies in specific stages will demonstrate a powerful ability.
Piecing together a global GLP-1 concept hodgepodge
As of last Friday's close, Lilly's stock price has risen by 90% in the past year, while Novo Nordisk has also risen by 68%. Mazha emphasized that investors don't have to worry about missing out on this trend, as the weight loss drug industry is still in its "early stages". He stated that there is significant growth potential in this market, which is enough to attract more companies to enter, whether they are providing drugs with better efficacy or offering new products that do not require subcutaneous injection.
(Starting from 2021, Novo Nordisk's stock price has tripled, source: TradeView)
This is called GLP-1& The weight loss drug ETF (OZEM) product was listed on the NASDAQ exchange last Tuesday. Compared to the concept of a product, what is more interesting is stock selection.
According to the position data released on the fund's official website, as of last Friday's close, Lilly and Novo Nordisk are undoubtedly the top two positions, with positions slightly exceeding 20%. The third largest holding is Zealand Pharma A/S, a Danish biotechnology research company. In terms of other holdings, major companies such as Anjin, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Revitalization have also made collective appearances in the GLP-1 and weight loss drug industries. A few days ago, it was announced that an online pharmacy called Hims& would launch an "affordable weight loss medication subscription service"; Hers is also on the holding list.
(Source: Roundhill Investments)
It is worth mentioning that the products issued by this US fund company also feature multiple Hong Kong and Japanese stock targets.
Among them, the fund's sixth largest holdings, Xinda Biotechnology (1801. HK), are working together with Lilly to promote the listing of the GLP-1R/GCGR dual agonist Masalidomide. Federal Pharmaceuticals (3933. HK) and Shiyao Group (1093. HK) also have GLP-1 products under research or already on the market.
In terms of Japanese stocks, this fund has chosen Sinopharm, Yoshitaka Yanno, and also bought Takeda Pharmaceutical's US stocks.
Mazha said, GLP-1 drug manufacturers are following a similar trajectory as AI concept stocks. The situation in this industry inevitably reminds people of Nvidia and AI, who are just one step ahead. Lilly and Novo Nordisk turned their attention to diabetes and weight loss drugs several years ago, successfully entering this market and producing remarkable results.
Next explosive point?
With the complete opening of market certainty for weight loss drugs, the development of related new drugs by well-known pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer, Amgen, and Berger Ingelheim has entered the mid to late stage of clinical trials, and Roche, which entered the market later, has also begun early research and development.
There are currently some positive trends in the focus of investors on "more effective weight loss pills" and "non injectable weight loss pills.".
According to Edmund Ingham, a biopharmaceutical analyst at Seeking Alpha platform, the next heavyweight weight loss drug is more likely to be the next replacement of Erpolotide/Smegglutide products launched by Eli Lilly or Novo Nordisk. Lilly's oral GLP-1 drug Orforglipron and Novo Nordisk's oral drug Amycretin have both submitted promising preliminary data.
In terms of other companies, Edmund also mentioned that Viking Healthcare is also working on a dual track. The company's experimental drug VK2735 caused an average weight loss of about 15% in obese patients within 13 weeks in early experiments. This company also has an oral weight loss medication under development, which can help patients lose 5% of their weight within 28 days. Anjin's management has said that they will release exciting Phase II data on the investigational drug MariTide next. Pfizer and Roche also have multiple GLP-1 pipeline drugs.
Compared to Edmund's "menu name," another biopharmaceutical analyst, Terry Christomalis, is more firmly betting on a new drug under Novo Nordisk called CagriSema. At present, this drug has a phase III trial in progress, and it directly compares CagriSema with Lilly's Zepbound injection.
CagriSema is a drug that combines cagrelinide with semaglutide.
Terry said that we already know that semaglutide is effective in providing a sense of fullness. Kaglirin peptide is a long-acting dual amylin analogue that has the effect of controlling blood sugar. Therefore, the combination of the two may further stimulate weight loss.