In 2024, weight loss pills are still in high demand.
Lilly Mufengda has been approved for listing in China
On May 21, the official website of the State Food and Drug Administration showed that Lilly Mufengda (Tilpodide injection) was approved by the State Food and Drug Administration (NMPA) to improve the blood sugar control of adult patients with type 2 diabetes.
Tilposide is a weekly injection of GIPR and GLP-1R agonists. GLP-1 and GIP are two natural enterotropins, and studies have shown that GIP can reduce food intake, increase energy expenditure, and thus reduce weight. When used in combination with GLP-1 receptor agonists, GIP may have a greater impact on patient blood sugar and weight.
It is worth mentioning that telposide can produce better weight loss effects than the so-called "miracle weight loss drug" Smegglutide. Related research data shows that the average weight loss of participants in the Mufengda 5mg and 10mg groups was 7.8kg and 10.3kg, while the average weight loss of the Smegglutide 1mg group was 6.2kg.
As for the approval of this drug, Lilly said that the approval of Tilpodide injection represents a breakthrough in the research and development of diabetes.
On May 21st local time, Lilly, which was listed on the US stock market, rose 2.55%, with its latest closing price reaching $803.17 per share, setting a new historical high. Currently, its total market value is $763.337 billion, making it the world's highest pharmaceutical company by market value.
There is significant growth potential in the weight loss medication market
Currently, due to the high price of GLP-1 and low patient awareness, the penetration rate of GLP-1RA drugs in China is relatively low among patients. This also means that there is a greater potential for drug penetration in the future. According to data released by Zhuo Shi Consulting, in developed countries in Europe and America, the GLP-1 market has accounted for about 20% of hypoglycemic drugs, while the GLP-1 market in China started relatively late and has high sensitivity to patient prices, with significant growth potential.
The GLP-1 Industry Blue Book of Insight Consulting mentioned that the global GLP-1 market size will be about US $19.85 billion in 2022, and is expected to grow rapidly to US $55.2 billion in 2030, accounting for 57% of the global overall diabetes drug market. China Merchants Securities Research News mentioned that GLP-1 medicine has a broad market prospect in the field of metabolism. It is expected that by 2030, the market size for type 2 diabetes and obesity will exceed the threshold of 100 billion dollars.
According to the Insight database, Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 receptor agonist smeglutide tablets and injection have been approved for the treatment of diabetes in China. At present, 112 new GLP-1 drugs have entered the clinical stage in China.
Recently, several A-share market weight loss drug concept stocks have revealed their layout progress.
Borui Pharmaceuticals said that as of April 27, 2024, all subjects in the Phase II clinical treatment of type 2 diabetes and weight loss indications of BGM0504 injection had been enrolled, including all subjects in the 5mg dose group for diabetes indications, and one patient in the 10mg dose group had not yet been included in the group.
Shuanglu Pharmaceutical's GLP-1 product, Liraglutide Injection Phase III, is currently undergoing clinical trial data sorting. It is expected to complete CSR in September. The GLP-1-Fc fusion protein (Duraglutide) is currently undergoing phase III clinical trial data sorting, and at least one of the above two varieties will be declared in the second half of the year.
Hanyu Pharmaceutical revealed that as of May 2nd, the total amount of signed orders for its Liraglutide formulation and various GLP-1 active pharmaceutical ingredients was nearly 600 million yuan, and some orders have been gradually shipped; The formulation production base has obtained EU GMP certification and US cGMP certification.
Fosun Pharmaceuticals said that Lilalutide (intended for diabetes indications), which is under research, is in the phase III clinical trial stage in China; Smeaglutide injection and Degu insulin injection (intended for diabetes indications) are in phase I clinical trials in China.
The research and development intensity of weight loss drug concept stocks is much higher than that of A-shares
The development of innovative drugs requires long-term and high-risk investments. Pharmaceutical companies need strong research capabilities and financial support in order to develop an innovative drug among numerous studies. To break through the crowded weight loss drug race, high-intensity research and development is essential.
According to Securities Times · Databao statistics, the total R&D expenditure of weight loss concept stocks in 2023 was 23.858 billion yuan, accounting for 10.26% of total operating revenue. The proportion of R&D expenditure to revenue was 4.09 times that of A-shares during the same period.
Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Fosun Pharmaceuticals, East China Pharmaceuticals, Lepu Medical, Lizhu Group, and Xinlitai, six concept stocks, have incurred R&D expenditures exceeding 1 billion yuan in 2023. Among them, Hengrui Pharmaceutical's R&D expenditure in 2023 was 6.15 billion yuan, ranking first; In 2023, the company obtained 72 clinical approvals for innovative drugs and 4 clinical approvals for generic drugs; Five clinical trials have been included in the list of breakthrough treatment varieties.
The future prospects of multiple weight loss drug concept stocks are optimistic by institutions. According to statistics from Data Treasure, according to unanimous predictions from five or more institutions, there are 11 concept stocks with net profit growth rates exceeding 20% in both 2024 and 2025. As of the close on May 22nd, among these concept stocks, Prius, Sunshine Novartis, and Aurite have a rolling P/E ratio of less than 30 times.
Disclaimer: All information provided by Databao does not constitute investment advice. The stock market carries risks and investment should be cautious.