Andrew Hollenhurst, Chief US Economist at Citibank, recently stated that the US economy will enter a recession in mid-2024.
Hollenhurst recently stated in an interview with US media that although the US economy appears to be performing well on the surface, including historically low unemployment rates, strong consumer spending, and GDP growth rates, the actual situation is much more complex. He said that one area of economic weakness is the labor market. In January, there was a surge in new employment in the non agricultural sector, adding 353000 jobs to the US economy. However, upon closer observation, it can be observed that working hours and the number of full-time employees are decreasing, and recruitment in industries such as the catering industry is stagnant.
"The state of the labor market is the key to the direction of the economy," Hollenhoster said. If the unemployment rate remains low and people continue to consume, the economy will be supported. He predicts that the unemployment rate in the United States will begin to rise, which will be "a sign of more substantial decline in the US economy.".
Hollenhurst also stated that the inflation level in the United States is still too high. Meanwhile, the credit card default rate is also on the rise. These are all potential risk points that the US economy may face.
Another person who holds a similar negative view of the US economy is Tosten Slock, Chief Economist of Apollo Management. He believes that a "soft landing" of the economy is the "least likely" scenario.
Recently, some data shows that the US economy has experienced some degree of volatility. On the one hand, inflation has rebounded. The recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have both shown significant increases. On the other hand, the decline in consumer spending indicates a lack of domestic consumption momentum, which has fueled some economists' pessimistic sentiment about the outlook for the US economy.