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Societe Generale noted that resilient U.S. labor market data has increased the risk of another Fed rate hike and helped drive higher long-term interest rates. However, next week's inflation data is likely to show that core inflation continues to slow. Coupled with the recent tightening of financial conditions reducing the need for further Fed action and officials turning their attention to the question of how long they need to keep current rates on hold enough to fight inflation, the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged. We think CPI can keep the Fed on hold. We are focused on core inflation data, with both core PPI and core CPI expected to provide additional evidence of price moderation. On the headline inflation measure, PPI will rise sharply, and CPI is expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month.
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