The new earnings season is about to begin! Eight out of 10 think U.S. stocks will face a profit warning
楚一帆
发表于 2023-10-9 18:57:10
275
0
0
According to a survey by Markets Live Pulse, 80 percent of 567 respondents are concerned that some industries may warn about earnings trends when they report new quarterly results, causing people to invest less.
Respondents included portfolio managers, traders, individual investors, economists and researchers.
That means the new earnings season could undercut the S&P 500. The index rose 1.2 per cent on Friday (Oct 6) after a breakthrough in talks between auto unions and carmakers boosted market sentiment.
U.S. stock futures fell in early Asian trading Monday after the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an attack inside Israel.
Multiple challenges
"It's going to be a tough quarter for the consumer sector to start," Stephanie Niven, portfolio manager at Ninety One in London, told me. And that will be combined with the Fed rate hike cycle starting to kick in."
Businesses across the United States, from used-car dealers to retailers, have begun to see consumer demand slow.
While consumer stocks have outperformed the broader market so far in 2023, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson team of strategists sounded the alarm on the sector, expecting consumers to pull back on spending as U.S. consumer discretionary stocks fell for a third straight week.
Investors are equally concerned that higher interest rates will start to weigh heavily on the economy and eat into profits that are just beginning to recover. Data last week showed a surprise surge in nonfarm payrolls in September, adding to expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again before the end of the year.
Rising interest rates are clearly at the top of people's minds. Some 54% of MLIV Pulse respondents believe that the biggest negative factors will be the impact of higher bond yields and further tightening of financial conditions. Immediately after Friday's non-farm payrolls report, the 10-year Treasury yield neared 4.9 per cent and the 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5 per cent, both touching their highest levels since 2007.
In addition to the risk of higher borrowing costs and a weak consumer, investors believe earnings expectations for S&P 500 companies over the next 12 months are nearing a peak.
About 60 percent of respondents believe upcoming earnings forecasts will drag the S&P 500 lower. Nearly 37 per cent expect the index to end the year down 5 to 10 per cent from current levels, while 8 per cent think it will fall more.
Despite the headwinds, however, more than 40 percent expect the current quarter to show resilience in the economy.
The first test of market confidence will come when jpmorgan officially kicks off the new earnings season on Friday, October 13, ahead of quarterly results from major banks that can be seen as a barometer of the economy's health.
Aneeka Gupta, director of macroeconomic research at WisdomTree, said, "The market is taking in what the Fed is saying, but at the same time considering their forward-looking implications that since they seem so determined to keep rates higher for longer, something has to break."
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- US retail giant Target's US stock rose over 10% in pre-market trading
- The main divergence in the technology sector of the US stock market at present
- Most popular Chinese concept stocks in the US stock market have fallen, while iQiyi has fallen by over 15%
- Vanguard Group warns: US tech stocks severely overvalued, people overly optimistic about AI prospects
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average hits a new high! US stock market rotation reappears: What should investors look for before September interest rate cut?
- Expectations of interest rate cuts may be greatly discounted! Bank of America warns: The biggest risk for US stock market this week will be on Friday
- Global markets: US stocks close higher, three major indexes all rise over 1%, NIO rises nearly 11%
- US stocks close higher: Dow Jones and S&P 500 both hit historic highs, Nasdaq rises 2.51%
- US Steel and US stocks rose over 3% in pre-market trading
- Top 20 US stock transactions: Apple falls nearly 3% due to worrying sales prospects for iPhone 16
-
AP通信9月27日、インテルは今月中旬に発表された重大な業務調整に加え、近日中にクアルコムに買収合併される可能性があるとの情報を伝えていることを明らかにした。 しかし、ウォール街のほとんどのアナリストは、 ...
- 什么大师特
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
9月27日、ネット通信社武漢グローバル本社の操業停止による荒廃について、同社の公式対応インタフェースニュースによると、同社本社の建設は操業停止ではなく、現在建設作業は計画通り着実に進められており、この1 ...
- 一念之间323
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
Alphabet傘下のグーグルの最新情報によると、同社は米国サウスカロライナ州に33億ドルを投資し、データセンターとクラウドインフラストラクチャを拡張する計画だ。 グーグルのサンダル・ピチャイ最高経営責任者は木 ...
- SNT
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
8月のトヨタ自動車(ダイハツ自動車と日野自動車を除く、レクサスを含む)の世界生産台数は前年同月比11.2%減の709571台、世界販売台数は前年同月比3.1%減の826863台だった。 日本本土市場では、トヨタ自動車の8月 ...
- SOGO
- 前天 18:03
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏