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Wells Fargo said it expects the U.S. to add 150,000 nonfarm jobs in September, down from 187,000 in August. Looking at the employment data, the labor force is expected to have declined slightly in September after surging the previous month. If that forecast is correct, that would bring the unemployment rate down slightly to 3.7 percent. At the same time, the trend in average hourly earnings growth continues to gradually ease, as turnover stabilizes and labor supply and demand become more balanced. Average hourly earnings growth is expected to have picked up slightly to 0.3% in September, though that was enough to push the three-month annualized increase in wages below 4%.
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