Will the Thunderbolt Incident in the Bank of America Industry Repeat? Research: Commercial real estate may face its largest collapse since 2008
阿豆学长长ov
发表于 2023-12-22 11:07:58
231
0
0
The commercial real estate industry in the United States is facing the biggest risk of collapse since 2008, which could result in losses of up to $160 billion for Bank of America.
This is the conclusion drawn by researchers from the University of Southern California, Columbia University, Stanford University, and Northwestern University in a new working paper that evaluates the impact of long-term high interest rates on the commercial real estate industry and the US banking system.
It is reported that the paper used a framework developed earlier to study the aggressive interest rate hikes taken by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation. This cycle of rate hikes has lowered assets such as stocks, bonds, and commercial real estate.
The report concludes that if 10% -20% of commercial real estate loans default (which is the low end of expected default rates during the financial crisis), US banks may suffer losses of approximately $160 billion.
"This evidence suggests that if interest rates continue to rise and real estate value does not recover, default rates may reach levels comparable to or even higher than during the Great Recession," the researchers wrote.
In fact, other experts have also warned about the troubles in the commercial real estate sector, as the industry has approximately $1.5 trillion in debt that will mature in the coming years. The prospect of further losses has raised concerns about another bank run, similar to the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) explosion that occurred earlier this year.
In this work report, researchers estimate that losses related to commercial real estate may lead to the bankruptcy of 31 to 67 smaller regional banks, assuming that half of the uninsured depositors clear their accounts. Another 340 banks may face losses due to rising interest rates.
"If this problem with commercial real estate loans becomes apparent in early 2022 when interest rates are low, then even in our most pessimistic scenario, no bank will fail. However, our research shows that after the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, the significant decline in bank asset values severely weakens banks' ability to withstand non-performing credit events. This exposure makes banks more susceptible to significant solvency risks." The report added that.
Investors have always been concerned about the stability of the US banking system. In August of this year, rating agency Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of 10 large and medium-sized banks in the United States, and included another group of banks in the review list, partly due to rising asset risks.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Collapsed? The prices of commercial real estate in the United States are facing the steepest drop in 50 years! More than 70000 billion yuan in loans due next year
- Federal Reserve's Half Year Monetary Policy Report: Not Urgent to Cut Interest Rates and Focus on Banking Risk Areas
- Federal Reserve's Half Year Monetary Policy Report: Not Urgent to Cut Interest Rates and Focus on Banking Risk Areas
- Commercial real estate is in crisis! Five regional banks in the United States have their rating outlook downgraded to "negative"
- Amazon is reportedly close to reaching an agreement with the NBA to broadcast NBA games on the streaming service Prime
- The United States is facing a crisis in commercial real estate! PIMCO predicts that the patience of regional banks is approaching a critical point
- The Olympic Games have increased the number of room bookings in Paris by more than five times, and the growth rate of Chinese tourists is leading
- Microsoft estimates CrowdStrike incident affects 8.5 million Windows devices worldwide
- Microsoft estimates CrowdStrike incident to affect 8.5 million Windows devices worldwide
- Weibo: Over 300 accounts have been banned from discussing Olympic table tennis events, including kicking, triggering battles, and malicious attacks
-
AIエクスプレスによると、10月3日、米株の人気の中概株盤の前が低くなり、ピッピッピッと5%近く下落し、相多、名創優品、小鵬自動車は3%超下落し、百度、蔚来自動車、京東は2%超下落した。 ...
- SOGO
- 昨天 17:06
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
ナスダック中国の金龍指数は5%超上昇し、楽しい自動車は120%超上昇し、金山雲は18%超上昇し、ピシャリと12%超上昇し、子牛の電動、怪獣の充電は10%超上昇し、愛奇芸は8%超上昇し、テンセント音楽、新東方は7%超上昇 ...
- hecgdge4
- 昨天 10:28
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
10月1日、理想自動車が9月に納入したデータによると、9月に理想自動車が新車53709台を納入し、前年同月比48.9%増となった。 今年第3四半期、理想自動車は前年同期比45.4%増の152831台を納入した。今年9月30日現在、 ...
- 就放荡不羁就h
- 前天 12:06
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
EUが中国の電気自動車に関税を課す方針、独首相と財務相が反発 ドイツ連邦のショルツ首相は現地時間の10月2日、EUが中国の電気自動車に一時的な補助金税を課す紛争を解決するために中国と交渉することを表明した。 ...
- 寒郁轩良
- 7 小时前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏