UK GDP rebounds slightly in August Q3 contraction fears remain
阿豆学长长ov
发表于 2023-10-12 21:15:38
255
0
0
The recovery partly reflected the disappearance of factors that held back activity in July, mainly large-scale industrial action, with services growing 0.4 per cent. However, manufacturing contracted by 0.8 per cent and construction by 0.5 per cent, both worse than economists had expected.
The Bank of England expects growth of just 0.1% in the third quarter, but doubts remain. To achieve steady growth in the third quarter, GDP needs to grow by at least 0.21 percent in September.
Sam Tombs, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the target seemed "out of reach" given that much of the increase in manufacturing activity in August was driven by a drop in strikes rather than the economy's underlying momentum. "The latest survey points to a weather-related drop in retail sales in September and a further decline in manufacturing output."
A contraction in the third quarter could mean that the UK economy is already in recession. With key PMI indices showing warning signs and unemployment rising, Bloomberg Economics expects the UK economy to contract for a year starting in the final three months of 2023.
The pound held onto gains after the GDP data and is set for a seventh straight day of gains, its longest winning streak since July 2020.
Bank of England rate-setter Swati dingra warned that the UK economy "has flattened out" ahead of further interest rate pain. She said the risks of a recession in the UK were now balanced.
"We think only 20 or 25 per cent of the impact of the rate hike is fed through to the economy," she said. "So I think there's a concern that it could mean we're going to have to pay higher costs than we should."
Yael Selfin, UK chief economist at KPMG, said: "The outlook for the UK economy remains bleak as the impact of high interest rates continues to be felt." "Today's data are consistent with our assessment that the economy entered a broad-based slowdown in late summer and has worsened further in recent months."
Money markets are pricing in a slightly more than 50% chance that the Bank of England will raise interest rates again in the coming months. However, rates are expected to remain high for an extended period as officials continue their efforts to bring inflation back to target.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said: "Since the outbreak began, the UK economy has grown faster than France and Germany, and today's figures show that the economy is more resilient than expected." "While this is a good sign, we still need to tackle inflation so that we can achieve sustainable growth."
However, the IMF sees the UK coming in last for growth next year, although its forecasts do not include the latest revisions.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- The IMF expects the German economy to decline further
- The IMF expects the German economy to decline further
- The US economy is noticeably cooling down! ING predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least 6 times next year
- Enable the people to enjoy better medical and health benefits! Chen Jining Meets with AstraZeneca CEO Su Boke from the UK
- Should the Bank of England also use a dot matrix? Bernanke will issue monetary policy recommendations for it
-
AP通信9月27日、インテルは今月中旬に発表された重大な業務調整に加え、近日中にクアルコムに買収合併される可能性があるとの情報を伝えていることを明らかにした。 しかし、ウォール街のほとんどのアナリストは、 ...
- 什么大师特
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
9月27日、ネット通信社武漢グローバル本社の操業停止による荒廃について、同社の公式対応インタフェースニュースによると、同社本社の建設は操業停止ではなく、現在建設作業は計画通り着実に進められており、この1 ...
- 一念之间323
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
Alphabet傘下のグーグルの最新情報によると、同社は米国サウスカロライナ州に33億ドルを投資し、データセンターとクラウドインフラストラクチャを拡張する計画だ。 グーグルのサンダル・ピチャイ最高経営責任者は木 ...
- SNT
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
8月のトヨタ自動車(ダイハツ自動車と日野自動車を除く、レクサスを含む)の世界生産台数は前年同月比11.2%減の709571台、世界販売台数は前年同月比3.1%減の826863台だった。 日本本土市場では、トヨタ自動車の8月 ...
- SOGO
- 前天 18:03
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏