Trump, there is new news!
On November 13th local time, according to the Associated Press, the Republican Party in the United States has won 218 seats in the House of Representatives, securing control of the House. This also means that after US President elect Trump takes office in 2025, he will have full control of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives with the Republican Party, achieving "full governance".
In addition, Fox News reported on the 13th, citing sources, that it is expected that the winner of the US presidential election, Trump, will soon appoint a special envoy for Ukraine to negotiate an end to the conflict. Trump said during his election campaign that he would find a solution to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict "within one day". Now, as he is about to return to the White House, the market is closely watching how he will fulfill this promise.
According to Reuters, two insiders said that the transition team of US President elect Trump is drafting a list of personnel to be fired by the US Department of Defense. If the dismissal list is true, it will be an unprecedented restructuring of the US Department of Defense.
Earlier, Trump's announcement that he would nominate television host Pete Hagerce as the US Secretary of Defense shocked the Pentagon and US allies. The Associated Press commented on this matter, stating that Trump has chosen someone who is largely inexperienced and untested on the global stage to take over the world's most powerful military.
It is worth noting that Morgan Stanley asset management strategist David Kelly recently issued a warning that Trump's aggressive tariff plan may slow down the global economy and put upward pressure on US inflation, which is a risk overlooked by the US stock market. The former US Treasury Secretary also warned that if Trump fulfills his promises, it will trigger an "inflation crisis" not seen in decades.
Take a look at the detailed report!
Trump transition team drafts list of Defense Department layoffs
According to CCTV News citing Reuters, on November 13th local time, two insiders said that the transition team of US President elect Trump is drafting a list of personnel to be fired by the US Department of Defense, which may include officials previously appointed by former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley.
According to reports, if the dismissal list is true, it will be an unprecedented restructuring of the US Department of Defense. Insiders have revealed that the layoff plan is still in its early stages and may change with the formation of the Trump administration.
It is currently unclear whether Trump himself will support the plan. According to reports, sources indicate that the incoming government may focus on US military officers who are seen to be related to former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley.
According to reports, Bob Woodward quoted Milley in his book "War" published last month, calling Trump a "complete fascist" who was targeted by Trump's allies for being perceived disloyal to the former president. The source said, "Everyone promoted and appointed by Milley will leave. There is a very detailed list of all those associated with Milley. They will all leave
The Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military includes the highest ranking officers in the military, consisting of leaders from the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, National Guard, and Space Force. The source said, "The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and all Vice Chairmen of the US military will be immediately dismissed." However, he pointed out that this is only an early plan.
However, some current and former US officials have downplayed the possibility of such a major restructuring, stating that it is unnecessary and destructive during the global turmoil of Ukraine and the Middle East wars.
Trump nominates television host as US Secretary of Defense
On the day before the disclosure of the aforementioned dismissal plan, on November 12th local time, Trump announced that he would nominate Fox News host Pete Hegseth as the United States Secretary of Defense. This veteran, who has participated in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, is highly likely to take over the Pentagon in the future, leading approximately 1.3 million active duty US troops. If civilian personnel are included, this number will reach approximately 3.3 million worldwide.
The Associated Press reported that Trump's nomination of Hagibis as Secretary of Defense shocked the Pentagon and the broader defense community, as he chose someone who was largely inexperienced and untested on the global stage to take over the world's largest and most powerful military.
Another US media outlet pointed out that even with the tradition of serving as a "civil servant," the Secretary of Defense still chooses leaders or corporate executives with high status in the military field to hold the position. For this position, Haigese is undoubtedly a "non-traditional option. Axios News Network further added that, in sharp contrast to other senior national security positions chosen by Trump, Hagibis supports a non interventionist "America First" foreign policy. However, Bloomberg's analysis suggests that Haggard's choice actually reflects Trump's long-standing preference for personnel arrangements.
Looking at Haggard's resume, he has some deeply rooted conservative ideas, which can be described as "like-minded" with Trump, who wants to make drastic reforms to "diversity" and "inclusivity" policies within the Pentagon.
According to the information, 44 year old Haggis is a Minnesota native who graduated from Princeton University and Harvard University. He is a veteran of the Army National Guard and has served in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. In 2014, he joined Fox News as a writer and was one of the co hosts of the flagship program "Fox&Friends".
Unlike previous defense ministers, Haigese has no experience serving in senior positions in the military or government. After graduating in 2003, he was appointed as an infantry captain and served in Afghanistan and Iraq. Among the previous US defense chiefs, Austin and Mattis both served as generals, and Bob Gates served as the director of the Central Intelligence Agency.
Adam Smith, the top Democratic member of the House Armed Services Committee, issued a statement saying, "The position of Secretary of Defense should not be a junior position, and I have doubts about President elect Trump's choice of a television news anchor to take on this extremely important role.
Trump's latest move has also surprised American allies greatly. Biden has provided billions of dollars in financial and military aid to Ukraine to help the country confront Russia, and Trump hinted during the campaign that he may not be able to fulfill this promise. European officials are concerned that Putin's victory in Ukraine will pose a threat to NATO countries on the eastern front from Russia.
Haggis expressed doubts about the US military intervention in Europe in recent speeches. He said in an interview that he doesn't believe victory in Ukraine will make Putin bolder. Hegesse said, 'It would be great if Ukraine could protect itself from this impact, but I don't want US intervention to penetrate deep into Europe.'.
A European diplomat said that such remarks are worrying and advised his colleagues not to underestimate Hagibis. Others have expressed that Trump's own attitude towards European security is more worrying than his perspective on selecting nominees. A source added that the EU needs to view the US election results as a warning bell and recognize that it cannot rely on the US for security.
Nominate candidates for multiple important positions such as Secretary of State
On November 13th local time, US President elect Trump nominated Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio as his candidate for Secretary of State after assuming the presidency.
On November 11th local time, The New York Times quoted informed sources as saying that Trump is expected to appoint Rubio as his Secretary of State after he takes office, but may also change his mind at the last minute. It has been revealed that Trump had previously considered Rubio when selecting his vice presidential candidate.
In addition, on the 13th, Trump announced the nomination of former Democratic Congressman Tulsi Gabbard as his Director of National Intelligence after assuming the presidency. Trump also nominated Florida Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz as his candidate for the position of U.S. Attorney General after assuming the presidency.
On the previous day, November 12th local time, Trump had nominated several important officials for his presidency. Fox News TV host nominated for Defense Secretary as the second most important figure in the US Armed Forces; Former members of the special forces will become Trump's "close aides" and be nominated for the position of National Security Advisor to the President; Musk, who supports Trump's campaign with both money and effort, will also serve as a leader in a newly established government department.
In addition, key figures behind the scenes in the White House, such as the White House Legal Advisor, have been selected. Trump announced on the 12th that William McKinley will return to the White House to serve as his legal advisor after assuming the presidency.
McKinley served as White House Cabinet Secretary in the previous Trump administration and as General Counsel for the Republican Senate National Committee (NRSC). The position of White House Counsel was established in 1943, responsible for providing advice and recommendations on all legal issues related to the President and his administration. White House legal advisors typically play a key role behind the scenes, responsible for reviewing Supreme Court candidates and nominees. During his first term, Trump nominated three Supreme Court justices.
In addition, on the 12th, Trump announced the nomination of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as his new US Ambassador to Israel after assuming the presidency. Trump also announced the appointment of Steve Witkoff, a New York real estate investor and campaign donor, as his special envoy for the Middle East after taking office as president.
On the same day, Trump announced that American entrepreneurs Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswami would jointly lead the proposed "Government Efficiency Department" after he takes office as president. Trump said that the "Government Efficiency Department" will "pave the way for dismantling government bureaucracies, cutting excess regulatory regulations and wasteful spending, and restructuring federal agencies. Both of them are business elites. Elon Musk, the world's richest man, leads electric car company Tesla, social media platform X, and space exploration technology company SpaceX. Ramaswami is the founder of a pharmaceutical company who competed with Trump for the Republican presidential nomination and chose to support him after withdrawing from the race.
Warning from Morgan Asset Management and former US Treasury Secretary
Recently, David Kelly, Chief Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that Trump's aggressive tariff plan may slow down the global economy and put upward pressure on US inflation, highlighting the risks that have been largely concealed during the post election rebound in the US stock market.
On Wednesday local time, former US Treasury Secretary Summers also stated that if President elect Trump truly fulfills his promises, the United States will once again experience a severe inflation crisis.
David Kelly said, "The first smoke signal indicates that tariff measures will be very aggressive, and there is hardly anything that is a panacea for stagflation. Stagflation means that inflation will rise while the economy will decline. Counterattack measures will only make the whole world worse. Tariff issues will trigger many conflicts. If you hit someone on the nose, they will also fight back. That's why they call it a tariff war
It is currently unclear which specific policy plans Trump will push, but his victory has prompted multinational corporations to rethink global supply chains and discuss raising prices to offset costs. At the same time, investors are considering the impact of rising protectionism on financial markets and US trading partners, including Europe.
Other strategists on Wall Street have also issued similar warnings, with bond yields rising sharply in the bond market as traders speculate that Trump's tax cuts and tariff plans will prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. TD Securities strategists led by Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg predict that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025 as central bank policymakers assess the impact of Trump's policies. JPMorgan's interest rate strategists have also lowered their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
David Kelly believes that a conflict between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration is ultimately possible because Trump's policies may be inconsistent with monetary policy, which still focuses on suppressing economic growth and inflation. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell refused to comment last week on how Trump's policies will affect the Fed's future actions.
David Kelly added, "The Federal Reserve does not assume, speculate, or predict what tariffs or fiscal policies will be. At some stage, they will have to fight, but I don't think they want to pick this issue right now
Former US Treasury Secretary Summers pointed out in a media interview on Wednesday that Trump's promised domestic tax cuts, tariff increases, and deportation of illegal immigrants will have a serious impact on the US economy. If he insists on implementing the plan he promised during the election, this country will suffer a bigger inflation crisis than in 2021
Considering the scale and damage of the last inflation, this is a rather serious warning. The US CPI data began to rise rapidly in the spring of 2021 and eventually reached a 40 year high of 9.1% in June 2022. Many Americans have never experienced such a thing before. Even today, the economic and political system of the United States can still feel its shock wave.
Of course, it is too early to say how Trump plans to implement his economic agenda, and adjustments may be made after he officially takes office. Summers cautioned, "I hope he can learn a lesson from this election and adjust his plans so that inflation does not arise. I hope policymakers can take measures to avoid or address inflation