The internal strife within the German coalition government has reached a critical moment. Wall Street: They're probably going to disband, aren't they?
日微牧
发表于 2024-11-5 21:55:45
1189
0
0
While the world is closely watching the US election, Germany, Europe's largest economy, is entering a critical juncture of political turmoil.
Due to the ongoing stalemate in the 2025 fiscal budget, which is expected to be finalized in mid November, there are special concerns about whether the Scholz coalition government will face significant changes in the next two weeks.
Are there increasing signs of 'disbandment'?
As a background, the current German federal government is composed of a coalition of three major political parties. In the current 733 seats in the German Bundestag, the Social Democratic Party led by Scholz holds 207 seats, the Green Party led by Vice Chancellor and Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Habeck holds 117 seats, and the Free Democratic Party represented by Finance Minister Lindner holds 91 seats.
Faced with a funding gap of billions of euros in the budget, the coalition government has been arguing for months. Faced with the approaching deadline, the divisions among the three major parties have increased instead of decreased, adding to the suspicion of a "collapse" of the alliance.
Local media reported that before the regular meeting of the alliance on Wednesday, representatives from the three parties held talks on Sunday evening and early Monday. This news has also intensified speculation about whether the alliance will dissolve this week.
ING's global macro head, Carsten Brzewski, wrote in a report on Monday: "German politics seems to have turned into a 'slow motion train collision'. The German government has just entered a new phase of a slowly burning political crisis, which may be the final step before the ruling coalition collapses
What's even more interesting is that Holger Schmieding, Chief Economist of Berenberg Bank, pointed out that the three major parties are now behaving as if "they are preparing for an immediate competition with each other".
For example, German Chancellor Scholz held a meeting with industry leaders last week, but did not invite partners from the ruling coalition. This situation has also led the German Liberal Democratic Party to announce that it will hold an economic leaders' summit led by Finance Minister Lindner this Tuesday, and will not invite the Social Democratic Party to attend.
At the same time, Finance Minister Lindner proposed a plan to boost the German economy last Friday, but was criticized by ruling coalition partners.
Morgan Stanley's Eurozone economist Greg Fuzci stated in a report on Monday that the proposal itself appears to be a serious analysis of Germany's problems and an attempt to propose solutions, but it opposes the fundamental positions of the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party, making it difficult for them to accept.
Brzewski believes that conflicting opinions in the article may not necessarily be a problem, but the tone in the wording "shows how cold the atmosphere between alliance partners has become".
Lindner stated in an interview last Sunday that he believes these issues will be resolved, while emphasizing that it is primarily the responsibility of the governing partners. But he avoided a key question, whether the German Liberal Democratic Party is prepared to leave the ruling coalition if his economic proposal does not receive support from allies.
Assumption: How the German coalition government disbanded
Schmieding stated that besides the ruling coalition finding a compromise solution, there may be several other situations that could change the composition of the German government. One possibility is that the Liberal Democratic Party itself withdrew from the alliance, and another possibility is that Scholz was provoked and demanded that they leave. If this happens, the Social Democratic Green Party minority government led by Scholz may face early elections next year.
The problem is that the core reason currently supporting the three companies to "continue to live together" is that the potential election situation is very unfavorable. The Liberal Democratic Party may only receive 3% of the votes in the election, which is not even enough to allocate 5% of the votes required for proportional seats. The Social Democratic Party and the Green Party are also expected to lose their seats, while the opposition Christian Democratic Union is expected to return to power.
Brzewski also explained that the Scholz minority government can actually hold on until the scheduled election day later in 2025, and even if the Liberal Democratic Party withdraws from the alliance, it may not necessarily trigger early elections. According to the German Constitution, the Federal President can only call elections in advance if the Chancellor loses a vote of no confidence in parliament.
But Brzewski also emphasized that the prospects for a German coalition government are already quite weak. He wrote, "Overall, we believe that the risk of the German coalition government falling apart is now higher than ever before. Even the potential geopolitical uncertainty brought about by the US election no longer seems to be a guarantee of maintaining government unity
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Trump's inauguration accelerates the bull market in the US stock market! Wall Street investment bank: Looking at 6600 points on the S&P 500 next year
- Latest consensus on Wall Street: In the Trump 2.0 era, the Federal Reserve may slow down its pace of interest rate cuts
- How will 'Trump 2.0' affect Nvidia? Wall Street consensus: More is good!
- Latest consensus on Wall Street: In the Trump 2.0 era, the Federal Reserve may slow down its pace of interest rate cuts
- 6500 points! Wall Street's' former big bears' firmly bullish on US stocks and provide these investment recommendations
- Will Trump 2.0 lead to a rise in the US stock market? Wall Street analysts warn: macro environment vastly different from eight years ago
- Wall Street is optimistic about Trump's tax cuts: nearly 30% of S&P 500 companies in the US stock market will benefit in the next two years
- Wall Street is bursting with optimism! BMO: S&P 500 is expected to reach 6700 points by the end of next year
- Wall Street investment banks worry that they won't be able to lower interest rates next year, but the Federal Reserve doesn't seem to see it that way
- Wall Street raises Nvidia target price one after another: Blackwell craze is coming!
-
イランは現地時間の金曜日(11月22日)、国際原子力機関(IAEA)がイランに圧力をかけている新たな決議に応えるため、大量の遠心分離機を追加してウラン濃縮を行うと発表した。 IAEA理事会は木曜日、イランの協力不 ...
- 1900_后
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
蔚来法務部は11月22日、インターネット上に流出した蔚来と他の企業の資本レベルのデマについて、会社が最初に通報し、受理されたと発表した。会社はすでにこのデマの全リンク推進過程と、マルチプラットフォームが ...
- 愿为素心人
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
「リハビリのビッグデータの利点とAIの力を借りて、専門監督、リハビリ師が子供に個性的なリハビリを提供し、この専門能力をAIを通じて特殊需要児リハビリ業界全体に放射することができれば、受益した子供の数は計 ...
- 哈耶萨鲁亚源
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
億航知能官微によると、11月20日、アラブ首長国連邦最高委員会のメンバー、ハイマ角首長のシェフサオド・ベン・サーゲル・カヒミ(His Highness Sheike Saud bin Saqr Al Qasimi)とアラブ首長国連邦駐中国大使のフ ...
- 我是权威人士漳
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏