The strong rebound of the Japanese yen has broken through the 140 mark, and there are rumors in the market that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates
白云追月素
发表于 2024-9-21 13:15:04
147
0
0
The US dollar fell below the key psychological level of 140 against the Japanese yen on Monday, reaching its lowest level in nearly nine months. During the European session, it fell to 139.58 at one point, after multiple media reports suggested that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50 basis points this week.
Analysts say that multiple media reports suggest that a 50 basis point rate cut is still an option, while former New York Fed Chairman Dudley also advocated for a significant rate cut, leading to a shift in market expectations.
The US interest rate futures market reflects a 51% chance of the central bank cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at this week's policy meeting, much higher than the approximately 15% seen earlier last week.
Brad Bechtel, the head of foreign exchange at Jefferies, stated that media reports have introduced the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut to the market after new inflation data reinforced expectations of a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve. Due to changes in market expectations, investors are adjusting their trading positions to accommodate a possible 50 basis point rate cut.
As investors expect the interest rate differential between the United States and Japan to further narrow, the Japanese yen has been the best performing G10 currency of the season, rising nearly 15%.
The Federal Reserve is almost certain to lower US borrowing costs this week, with the only issue being the reduction. Japan is expected to remain inactive on Friday after raising interest rates twice this year.
Chandresh Jain, Asia interest rate and forex strategist at BNP Paribas, said, "All fluctuations now stem from interest rates, and the market is digesting the prospect of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan
Jain expects the yen to continue to appreciate next year, but warns of "considerable risks" including the outcome of the US election and the risk of tariff hikes.
He added that foreign financial institutions may also be forced to sell some of their investment portfolios to cope with the liquidation of yen arbitrage trading, but we have not yet seen a complete collapse of arbitrage trading.
Although the Bank of Japan may not change its borrowing costs this week, most economists expect the central bank to increase borrowing costs again in December. The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate to 0.25% on July 31, causing global market turbulence in early August and impacting assets such as currency, bonds, and stocks.
Bank of Japan reviewer Naoki Tamura sent a strong hawkish signal to the outside world last Thursday: the Bank of Japan's future interest rate hikes may be greater than many economists expected. He pointed out that Japan's neutral policy interest rate is 1% or higher, and the Bank of Japan may have to raise interest rates quickly.
In addition, Japan's nationwide holiday on Monday was also one reason for the rise in the yen. Ryota Abe, Asia Pacific economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, warned that holiday "speculators" took advantage of the opportunity of light trading, which could easily trigger significant market volatility.
However, he stated that the Japanese yen exchange rate may reach 135 yen per US dollar by the end of this year, the highest level since May last year& amp;quot; The US dollar is bound to fall against the Japanese yen in the near future, accompanied by some drastic fluctuations& amp;quot;
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Amazon Prime members reach full Japanese yen in 2024, Chinese brands sell globally
- Toyota's first quarter operating profit was 1.3 trillion yen, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%
- Amazon Japan to invest another 25 billion yen in last mile delivery business
- The sharp decline in the Japanese stock market caused Buffett to lose 550 billion yen! Industry hot topic: Will stock gods still increase their positions?
- Milestone moment! Hedge fund net long in Japanese yen for first time in 3 years
- The Japanese stock market experienced a sudden plunge! The Japanese market has experienced significant fluctuations, and the Japanese yen has appreciated significantly
- NIO Legal Department: Reported bankruptcy rumors to the police
- NIO Legal Department: Reported bankruptcy rumors to the police
- OpenAI's commercial subscription users have exceeded 1 million, and there are rumors of astonishing price increases for new models
- Qualcomm is in talks to purchase Intel? Intel China: No comment on rumors
-
AP通信9月27日、インテルは今月中旬に発表された重大な業務調整に加え、近日中にクアルコムに買収合併される可能性があるとの情報を伝えていることを明らかにした。 しかし、ウォール街のほとんどのアナリストは、 ...
- 什么大师特
- 前天 16:13
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
9月27日、ネット通信社武漢グローバル本社の操業停止による荒廃について、同社の公式対応インタフェースニュースによると、同社本社の建設は操業停止ではなく、現在建設作業は計画通り着実に進められており、この1 ...
- 一念之间323
- 前天 13:42
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
Alphabet傘下のグーグルの最新情報によると、同社は米国サウスカロライナ州に33億ドルを投資し、データセンターとクラウドインフラストラクチャを拡張する計画だ。 グーグルのサンダル・ピチャイ最高経営責任者は木 ...
- SNT
- 前天 12:30
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
8月のトヨタ自動車(ダイハツ自動車と日野自動車を除く、レクサスを含む)の世界生産台数は前年同月比11.2%減の709571台、世界販売台数は前年同月比3.1%減の826863台だった。 日本本土市場では、トヨタ自動車の8月 ...
- SOGO
- 昨天 18:03
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏