According to the report of the Singapore Securities Release Study, real annualized annual GDP in the United States in the three quarters was 4.9 per cent at the beginning of the season and 2.1 per cent at the front. Of these, the consumption ring ratio was significantly increased by 2.7 per cent, the private stock changes by 1.2 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively, and the government expenditure cycle by 0.1 per cent and 0.2 per cent, respectively, for fixed asset investments and net exports. According to the Bank, the three-quarter GDP of the United States reinforces the current pricing logic of the market, which remains the same for “economic strength — higher interest rates for longer”.
The main points of view are as follows:
Consumption: service consumption remains resilient and new car consumption is weak.
The consumption of durables increased by 1.9 per cent over the ring, of which the recreational commodities were more driven; the three-quarter cycle of car consumption shifted to positive, but consumption of new vehicles weakened.
The scale of service consumption has remained resilient, with a marked cooling of core PCE inflation.
Disturbing, such as consumption in the fourth quarter or the re-establishment of student loans, focuses on consumer credit.
Fixed investment: Housing investment rebounded and non-residential investment slowed.
The increase in the housing investment ring has recovered for the first time since the second quarter of 2021, but has remained lower than in the last quarter of the year and is expected to decline in the fourth quarter.
The growth in non-residential investment has slowed, with the increase in the equipment investment ring falling due to the base effect; and the return-to-manufacturing-related investment may be on the way to a platform period, with the increase in non-residential construction and intellectual property investment slowing down.
Stock: Faster up- and down-stream and slower for brokers.
The manufacturer ' s three-quarter replenishment is mainly from the oil and coal industry or related to a three-quarter energy price reversal; the wholesaler ' s access is driven by durables.
Retailers see that the downstream industry slows down and that daily consumption such as food, clothing and grocery stores accelerates.
The United States export/import ring ratio changed from negative to positive in the third quarter. Subregionly, United States imports to the European Union have been positive, with other countries and regions still lagging, and it will take time for US manufacturing capacity to start driving exports to China.
In the medium term, the trade logic of the market for “higher economies — higher interest rates — has remained unchanged.
After the publication of GDP data, inflation expectations softened and the rate of return on United States debt fell; and economic resilience continued to underpin the expectations of the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, thereby stifling the United States stock market, with the three main points falling, the worst. The three-quarter GDP reinforces the current pricing logic of the market, which remains the same for “higher economies — higher interest rates”.
Risk alerts: inflation in the United States continues to outpace expectations, federal monetary policy tightens ahead of expectations, and financial markets in the United States tightens beyond expectations.